One such location is Lake Issyk-Kul in central Asia, where archaeological excavations have revealed an unusually high death rate for the years 1338 and 1339. Memorial stones attribute the deaths to plague, leading some scholars to conclude that the pestilence could have originated there and then spread east to China and south to India. Issyk-Kul's location along the trading routes of the Silk Road and its accessibility from both China and the Caspian Sea make it a convenient spot for spreading disease.
However, other sources refer to plague in China as early as the 1320s. Whether this strain infected the entire country before spreading westward to Issyk-Kul, or whether it was an isolated incident that had died out by the time a separate strain from Issyk-Kul reached the east is impossible to tell. But however it started and however it spread, it took a devastating toll on China, killing millions.
It is most likely that, rather than moving south from the lake through the seldom-traveled mountains of Tibet, the plague reached India from China via common ship trading routes. There too millions would succumb to its horror.
How the pestilence made its way to Mecca is not clear. Both merchants and pilgrims traveled by sea from India to the holy city with some regularity. But Mecca was not struck until 1349 -- more than a year after the disease was in full swing in Europe. It is possible that pilgrims or merchants from Europe brought it south with them.
Also, whether the disease moved directly to the Caspian Sea from Lake Issyk-Kul, or whether it first moved to China and back again along the Silk Road is unknown. It may have been the latter, since it took a full eight years to reach Astrakhan and the capital of the Golden Horde, Sarai.
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